US Industrial production has missed expectations for 4 of the last 5 months (not seen outside recession) and has not seen notable MoM gains for 6 months in a row (not seen outside recession). Against expectations of a 0.3% gain, IP dropped 0.2% in May (not what the meteorconomists were hoping for). Without the over-stocking of motor vehicles [also known as channel stuffing], the number would have been a total disaster as Autos rose 1.&% MoM (the only industry to gain) but the 7.9% plunge in drilling/servicing at oil/gas wells is “unequivocally bad.” At 1.37% YoY growth, this is the weakest industrial production since January 2010. Minor upward revisions stalled the MoM drop streak but US factory output has now fallen YoY 6 months in a row (not seen outside recession) for the biggest drop in over 4 years.
MoM it’s ugly…
But YoY is flashing recessionary red!
“The global economic situation is not ideal,” Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, said before the report.
Manufacturing activity in New York State slowed in June, dropping to its weakest level in more than two years as new orders fell, a New York Federal Reserve survey showed on Friday.
The New York Fed’s Empire State general business conditions index fell from 3.09 in May to -1.98 in June, hitting its lowest level since January 2013.
Source: [Zero Hedge]